100NL is raping me.
Heres a graph of my shot at 100NL -- 26k hands this month:
Its ugly isn't it? I decided to quit my last session at 'almost even' in order to take some time to look at what I've been doing wrong so far.
First thing I did was jump into pokerEV and sort by net wins. Heres where I lose my money.
Of my top 32 net losing hands, HALF were due to overpairs.
Next thing on the agenda was to see my big winners.
From the same size window, only 6 overpairs won me decent sized pots.
PokerEV has this fancy feature that lets you filter your hands by factors like number of players per hand, hand type, when betting/raising occurs, etc...Soooo...
Graph of hands where I flop an Overpair.
"Odd", I thought. Looks like I'm up overall in hands I have an overpair. Way above my showdown winnings, so that means my non showdown winnings are making up for my dumb decisions to go to the river.
This led me to my next decision to look at spots where I bet pf, then cbet on the flop with no pair.
Nonshowdown losses then wins:
I couldn't get an actual count of the number of times I won without showdown versus the number of times I lost. So, I used the scrollbar as a guide. My green numbers turned into red numbers about 2/3 ~ 3/4 of the way down. This is consistent with my ~33% WWSF.
Heres a graph of bet pf, cbet with high card graph (includes showdowns)
Again, above SD winnings. Surprised myself with that.
Where the heck were my losses coming from? Well, heres a graph of high card, no bets.
Disgusting. How to fix this.
Heres my graph of hands with straight draws. For some reason, I've been playing them significantly weaker than FDs.
Not too good either.
Finally, some position graphs.
UTG, BB, SB play.
Hijack, CO, Button play...
Time to sleep this over and think about how to plug those leaks and sniff out some other leaks.
Posts
3 comments:
too many images COME ONNNNN
Soon you will be crushing NL 100! I think I know why you are so negative with overpairs. That is probablly due to people that accomplish that you are multitabling 16 tables and start to flat call you with position and speculative hands like 67s, 22 +, 75s, etc. taking huge impplied odds.
Well, what can you do? You see, that happens with me too. The only thing that occurs to me is not to buy-in for the maximum. In that way you cut the impplied odds from them. I believe something about 60% of the buy-in will cut the impplied odds. I never tried that. If you suceed, please tell me.
Please answer me these questions Daniel ( you can answer here, like a coment ):
1) What was your winrate on NL 50? I am 7bb/ 100 hands. Do you think that will be how much on NL100?
2) What bankroll size do you use? I use 100 buy-ins for NL full ring.
3) How come you have time to play so much poker? :)
Goodbye my friend,
Nikolas ( moriarty_poker FTT / nikolaspares PS / Party / bodog nikolasp pacific )
Hello moriarty_poker!
Your hypothesis about the implied odds is likely true, though I try very hard not to go broke with big pairs. At the same time, I do not like letting people get away with seeing my (hopefully-winning-)hand cheaply.
1) What was your winrate on NL 50? I am 7bb/ 100 hands. Do you think that will be how much on NL100?
In my 200k hand sample at 50NL, my rate ended up being 4.5 BB/100. I ran at about 2BB/100 for a good amount of time as you can see in my past posts. Opening up my PFR in early February helped that rate go up. 7bb/100 sounds like a VERY good rate to me. It was always my understanding that 5bb/100 at this level is difficult, but maintainable. You must be doing things right!
Its difficult for me to say what your rate would translate into at 100NL. I would post an updated graph for you to see how I'm faring, but I wont be at my computer with Ptracker until Sunday. Basically, my ride has been rough. I'll try to recall it for you.
The graph I have in this post has 26k hands shown - about Net $0. For my next 25k hands after that point, I went down to net -$1,000. The following 5k hands brought me back up to about Net +$150. The 1,000 bet swing is one of the nastiest I've taken in a while.
So, currently I'm running at somewhere between -0.25 and +0.25 bb/100.
The big question is -WHY?-! I know I've already made a number of wtf-type-hero-calls that were based off of some weak/desperate reads. I may be having a problem extracting post flop. I'll take a good look when I get back on Sunday.
2) What bankroll size do you use? I use 100 buy-ins for NL full ring.
I decided to try out 100NL with 50 buyins (5,000 bets).
3) How come you have time to play so much poker? :)
This is a good question...I think it only -seems- like a lot. I only play on average 3 hours/day. Also, I run off of a low amount of sleep.
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